What does “82% likely by 14 November” mean?

In 82% of the simulated futures, the project launched by that date. It's a confidence level, not a promise.

Toggles that test changes, such as approving a pending decision today or adding a feature, so you can see their effect on the forecast before committing.

How often does the cone update?

Continuously, as tasks are completed and the team's velocity changes.

Launch Probability Cone: not a deadline, a probability

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Not a deadline. A probability.

Most projects promise a single launch date and quietly hope. The Launch Probability Cone shows the honest picture: a Monte Carlo forecast built from your team's real velocity, expressed as a probability, like 82% likely by 14 November. Toggle what-ifs to see how approving something today, or adding scope, narrows or widens the cone.

Start a project

How it works

Launch probability

0% by 14 Nov

What if: approve hero today

Sample

Launch Probability Cone · sample data

The difference

The usual way

Single dates are guesses in disguise

A deadline set at kick-off ignores everything learned since. When it slips, it slips all at once.

With Launch Probability Cone

A forecast that updates itself

The Cone runs thousands of simulations from real progress and shows how confident each date really is.

How it works

01/ 04

1
Real velocity
It learns how fast your team is actually completing work.
2
Thousands of simulations
Monte Carlo runs play the remaining work forward many times.
3
A probability cone
See the likely range, and the chance of hitting any date.
4
Try what-ifs
Approve a decision or add scope and watch the cone move.

What you get

Honest dates

Confidence levels, not false precision.

Early warnings

See risk while there's time to act.

Better trade-offs

What-ifs show what each change costs.

Always current

Updates as work progresses.

Labelled as AI

You always know what an AI produced.

Cites its sources

Answers link to where they came from.

A person signs off

Nothing reaches you without a human check.

Questions

Launch Probability Cone, answered.

A Monte-Carlo forecast built from the team's real velocity, e.g. 82% likely by 14 Nov. Toggle what-ifs to see how approvals or new scope move the date.

A method that simulates the remaining work thousands of times, using real variation in how long tasks take, to produce the probability of finishing by each date.

Works well with